India is at a crossroads in its defence modernization initiatives, notably regarding air combat capability. With the Indian Air Force (IAF) struggling to sustain squadron strength and combat national security threats, procuring the F-35, the United States’ flagship fifth-generation stealth fighter, has gained traction. While the F-35 represents a technological leap, the choice to add it to the IAF’s fleet is laden with strategic, fiscal, and operational challenges. More significantly, it poses an existential threat to India’s indigenous fighter jet programs, including the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
India’s fighter force is on the verge of a disaster due to a severe shortage of operating squadrons. The IAF’s sanctioned strength is 42 squadrons, but it only runs 31, making the country vulnerable to a potential air conflict. Much of this fleet comprises ageing Soviet-era aircraft such as the MiG-21 and MiG-27, which are long overdue for replacement. However, India’s introduction of 36 French Rafale planes has resulted in insufficient aerial strength when compared to its regional rivals China and Pakistan.
China’s fast military achievements, particularly in airpower, have heightened India’s anxieties. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has operationalized the J-20 fifth-generation stealth fighters, and by 2035, China is expected to have deployed almost 1,000 J-20s. Furthermore, China is quickly building a sixth-generation stealth aircraft, which will debut at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow. Pakistan, on the other hand, is building up its air force with JF-17 Thunder, J-10C, and F-16 fighters. Islamabad is also considering inducting Chinese J-31 stealth fighters, which would further shift the regional balance. These developments underscore the need for India to modernize its fleet.
However, the F-35, while technologically advanced, may not be the best option. The Tejas LCA program, which began in 1984, has experienced several delays and has delivered only 36 aircraft in four decades—an abysmally slow pace. The AMCA, India’s projected fifth-generation stealth fighter, is currently under construction and will not be operational until at least 2035.
The strategic ramifications of adopting the F-35 go beyond its operational capability. The offer, made in February 2025 during the advent of the F-35 threatens to draw funding and policy attention away from these Indigenous efforts, delaying India’s ability to rely on military aircraft. The summit between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is both a geopolitical ploy and a defensive proposition. The US wants to persuade India to buy American military equipment while preventing any potential acquisition of the Russian Su-57, which comes with the benefit of technology transfer. If India chooses the F-35, it risks falling too deeply into the United States’ security orbit, jeopardizing its long-held strategic autonomy.
India has always pursued a diverse defence procurement strategy, relying on military hardware from Russia, France, and Israel to prevent reliance on a single country. Aligning too closely with the US through an F-35 agreement could result in diplomatic and military limits, particularly in future conflicts where American foreign policy priorities may differ from India’s interests.
Another big problem is the financial weight of the F-35. Each aircraft costs roughly $100 million, and the operations expenses are similarly formidable, with a cost per flying hour of around $42,000. The IAF, which is already budget-constrained, would have to commit significant resources for F-35 procurement, maintenance, and infrastructure upgrades. Such spending may come at the expense of Indigenous fighter programs and other key defence projects.
From an operational standpoint, integrating the F-35 into India’s current air force structure presents significant hurdles. The IAF’s fleet is primarily composed of Russian-made aircraft like the Su-30MKI, MiG-29, and MiG-21. The F-35, which is intended to operate within NATO’s operFurthermore, unlike deals with France and Russia, which frequently contain technology transfer agreements, the F-35 package is unlikely to include any significant transfer of sensitive technologies, undermining India’s long-term self-reliance in defence manufacture. The national ecosystem would require significant modifications and new infrastructure to be compatible with India’s existing systems. Furthermore, the F-35 has been beset by maintenance challenges, software malfunctions, and supply chain bottlenecks, which may hinder its operational deployment in India.
Furthermore, the geopolitical repercussions of an F-35 acquisition would go beyond India and the US. China, which sees the F-35 as a direct danger, might respond by accelerating defence modernization, increasing J-20 deployments, and investing extensively in sixth-generation aerial combat capabilities. This might exacerbate regional tensions and force India into a costly arms race. Similarly, Pakistan is likely to strive to counterbalance an F-35 procurement by acquiring additional Chinese J-31 stealth fighters or strengthening its missile deterrent capabilities, further disrupting the South Asian security landscape.
The implications for India’s relations with Russia would likewise be considerable. Russia remains one of India’s top defence suppliers, delivering fighter jets and missile defence systems.
. A move toward the F-35 might damage Indo-Russian relations, especially as the US has already urged countries to forsake Russian defence commitments. India’s continuing procurement of Russia’s S-400 air defence system has already raised tensions with Washington, and an F-35 purchase could force India to choose between Russian and American military alliances.
While the F-35 is unquestionably a cutting-edge combat plane, India’s acquisition provides more issues than solutions. Financial limits, strategic dependence, and operational challenges make it a less-than-ideal option, especially as Indigenous alternatives, such as the AMCA, are still being developed. Instead of focusing on the F-35, India could accelerate the AMCA project, increase the production capacity of the Tejas Mk-2, and cultivate deeper collaborations with partners such as France and Russia for cooperative stealth aircraft development.
India’s long-term security is dependent not just on procuring the most advanced jets available, but also on ensuring that its air force modernization policy is sustainable, cost-effective, and linked with national objectives. While the F-35 is a capable aircraft, it has the potential to undermine India’s defence self-reliance objectives. Suppose India wants to become a significant aerospace power. In that event, it must reject the temptation to seek short fixes and instead invest in Indigenous technology that will ensure its strategic autonomy for decades.
Javed Iqbal is pursuing an M.Phil. in Strategic Studies from National Defense University (NDU), Islamabad. He can be reached at javedbangash769@gmail.com.
